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The national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor bean, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) was 119.085 million tons, 3.68% lower than the one harvested in 2003 (123.632 million tons). In relation to November, we can observe a fall of 0.13%, when a volume of 119.242 million tons was recorded. The regional distribution of the obtained production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2004 was the following: 48.768 million tons in the South region; 39.868 million tons in the Central West; 17.641 million tons in the Southeast; 9.384 million tons in the Northeast and 3.424 million tons in the North.
In relation to November 2004, the production of beans 2nd harvest and of wheat falls
In the comparison with the harvest of November 2004, stood out the changes in the production estimates of beans in grain 2nd harvest (-1.37%) and of wheat (-2.48%). These results occurred due to the respective adjustments in Bahia (-2.70%) and in Rio Grande do Sul (-8.72%), since the harvest 2004 is already completed. In Bahia, the production of beans amounted to 218 thousand tons (-7.40%), while in Rio Grande do Sul, the production of wheat summed 2.061 million tons, which represents 14% less than the one recorded in 2003.
In the comparison with 2003, growth in seed cotton (herbaceous) reaches 62%
Among the analyzed products, three presented positive change in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: seed cotton (herbaceous) (62.00%), rice in husk (28.51%) and sorghum in grain (21.68%). The products that presented negative change were the following: beans in grain 1st harvest (-12.12%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (-7.26%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (-9.95%), corn in grain 1st harvest (-10.47%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (-18.68%), soy in grain (-4.39%) and wheat (-3.56%).
The closing of the harvest of all the surveyed products researched by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), in the annual crops (temporary), as well as in the perennial crops (permanent), happens in December.
Harvest of 2005 may reach 134.9 million tons, 13.29% higher than the one recorded in 2004
The IBGE carried out in December the 3rd forecast of information regarding the planted areas as well as the production for the harvest of 2005, in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions, and in the states of Rondônia, Bahia, Piauí and Maranhão. According to the estimate, the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is estimated in 134.900 million tons, 13.29% higher than the one recorded in 2004.
Besides the regions and states where the research was carried out, the crops of winter (oats, rye, barley, wheat) and the products of the 2nd and 3rd harvests were also considered for the estimate of the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds of the harvest in 2005. Nevertheless, due to the agricultural calendar, for the states that still do not have the initial estimates, some information of the harvest of 2004 was repeated in 2005.
In 2005, peanuts in husk 1st harvest, rice in husk and soy in grain indicate growth in the planted area
Among the investigated products, three presented positive change in relation to the planted area in 2004: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (0.56%), rice in husk (0.94%) and soy in grain (6.17%). Considering the ones that presented negative change we can observe the following products: herbaceous cotton (-4.09%), beans in grain 1st harvest (-10.99%) and corn in grain 1st harvest (-4.93%). In relation to the expected quantities, rice in husk (0.81%), beans in grain 1st harvest (10.58%), corn in grain 1st harvest (4.60%) and soy in grain (28.87%) presented positive change. On the other hand, with negative change we can observe the following products: herbaceous cotton (-2.78%) and peanuts in husk 1st harvest (-5.69%).
The estimate for 2005 of herbaceous cotton in December (3.512 million tons) is not considerably different than the expected one in November (3.531 million tons). Nevertheless, it is 2.78% lower than the one obtained in 2004 (3.612 million tons). The main cause of this decrease is the current prices, which are in levels lower than the ones commercialized previously. In the main state producer, Mato Grosso, a production of 1.406 million tons is expected, 18.16% lower than the one obtained in 2004. The planted area also presents significant decrease: -20.26% in its 375 thousand hectares.
A growth of 0.94% in the planted area (3.809 million hectares) and an increase of 0.81% in the estimated production (13.370 million tons) are expected regarding the crop of rice. In relation to November, small increases are verified in the planted areas as well as in the productivity of Rio Grande do Sul (5,853 kg/ha) and Mato Grosso (2,937 Kg/ha), the main state producers. This increase in the planted area occurs due to the incorporation of new areas to the productive process.
For the beans 1st harvest, a volume of approximately 1.580 million tons is expected, which is 10.58% higher than the volume recorded in 2004. The planted area shows decrease of 11% (2.210 million hectares) and the productivity index presents increase of 12.24%. The main causes for this reduction of 11% were the prices, the scarcity of labor force and the preoccupation with the climate. In Paraná, which is the major national producer, the harvest in course, and the developing crops are being damaged by the excessive raining.
Regarding corn 1st harvest, the forecast is that there may be a reduction of 4.93% in the planted area, due to the current low prices in the market. With the productivity increasing in 5% (3.600 kg/ha), a production of 32.486 million tons is expected. Among the states, the major growths are observed in the states of Rio Grande do Sul (49%) and Santa Catarina (27%), despite the fall of 5.92% in Paraná.
Regarding soybeans, the production is estimated in 63.432 million tons, compared to 49.222 million tons obtained in 2004, hence, an increase of 29% can be observed. Due to the low prices, this significant increase in the production of soybeans occurs because of the lack of option of sowing of other crops, since corn also presents quotations below reasonable expectations. Considering the Major Regions that produce soybeans in the Country, we can observe the following increases in the production: 867 thousand tons (4.95%) in the North Region; 4.055 million tons (10.88%) in the Northeast Region; 4.941 million tons (9.47%) in the Southeast Region; 22.729 million tons (40.32%) in the South Region and 30.841 million tons (28.36%) in the Central West Region.
The climatic conditions are normal in the surveyed regions and states, with regular and well distributed rainfall. The exception is Rio Grande do Sul, where the severe droughts are aggrieving a great number of municipalities and producing serious damages to the agricultural sector of the state. There are some cases of excessive humidity nevertheless these are isolated cases, without great implications to the crops. In the case of Rio Grande do Sul, we can observe the reduction in the crops of grains (whose more precise evaluation regarding the dimension of losses will be obtained in the analysis of January). We can also observe in this state that the lack of raining caused significant losses in the crop of apple, mainly in relation to the quality of the fruit.
January 27, 2005