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Retail sales change 0.2% in October

 

 

In the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of sales of the retail trade changed 0.2% in October and the nominal revenue of sales, 0.7%, compared with September. This was the eighth positive figure in a row for the volume of sales, whereas the nominal revenue has been growing since June 2012. As a result, both the volume and revenue moving averages rose: 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. In the other comparisons in the seasonally unadjusted series, the volume of sales rose 5.3% over October 2012, a cumulative rate of 4.0% in the year and of 4.5% in the last 12 months. For the nominal revenue of sales, these rates were 12.0%, 11.8% and 11.9%, respectively.

Compared with September, the extended retail trade grew 1.8% in terms of volume of sales and 2.3% in terms of nominal revenue (seasonally adjusted series). In relation to October 2012, the changes were 2.2% for the volume of sales and 7.8% for the nominal revenue (seasonally unadjusted series). The cumulative volume of sales stayed at 3.4% in the year and at 3.9% in the last 12 months. As to the nominal revenue, both cumulative rates stayed at 8.6%. More detailed information about the survey on http://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.

Considering the seasonally adjusted volume of sales, seven activities changed positively and three, negatively, compared with September: Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories (6.2%); Office, computer and communication equipment and material (3.0%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (1.5%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (1.2%); Construction material (0.9%); Fuels and lubricants (0.6%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (0.1%); Furniture and household appliances (-0.2%); Hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco (-0.4%) and Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-0,4%) (see Table 1).

In relation to October 2012 (seasonally unadjusted series), only one out of the eight retail activities recorded a drop in the volume of sales: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.6%). The other rates were the following, in order of importance to the overall figure: 3.3% for Hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco; 11.9% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; 11.4% for Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries; 6.1% for Fuels and lubricants; 5.0% for Furniture and household appliances; 3.5% for Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear; and 10.5% for Office, computer and communication equipment and material.

 

 

SECTORAL FIGURES

By rising 3.3% its volume of sales over October 2012, the sector of Hypermarket, supermarket, food, beverages and tobacco was again the main contributor (31%) to the overall retail rate. Taking into account the inflation in this sector[1], its performance stood below the retail average, yet leveraged by the increase of income volume and by the stability of employment[2]. This activity recorded a cumulative rate of 1.5% in the year and of 2.5% in the last 12 months.

The activity of Other articles of personal and domestic use - which encompasses department, optical, jewelry, sport articles, toy stores, etc. - rose 11.9% in terms of volume of sales against October 2012 and exerted the second biggest influence over the retail rate (23%). The increased volume of wages, the stability of employment and the Children´s Day celebrations contributed to this. The cumulative rate in the year was 10.5% and, in the last 12 months, 10.9%.

As the third biggest contributor to the overall retail rate (14%), the activity of Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries rose 11.4% over October last year and posted a cumulative rate of 9.7% in the year and of 9.2% in the last 12 months.



[1] Measured by the Group of Food at home of IPCA, the increase of the prices of this activity in the last 12 months was 8.2%, against the average inflation of 5.8%.

[2] The real average income usually earned by employed persons grew 1.4% in October against the same month a year ago. According to the Monthly Employment Survey of IBGE, the unemployment rate over October last year (5.3%) did not report a significant change, statistically speaking.

 

As the fourth biggest contributor to the overall retail rate, the segment of Fuels and lubricants grew 6.1% in terms of volume of sales in relation to October 2012, registering a cumulative rate of 6.1% both in the year and in the last 12 months. By rising 2.9% in 12 months against an average inflation of 5.8% in the same period, according to IPCA, the behavior of fuel prices contributed to this performance.

The activity of Furniture and household appliances increased 5.0% in terms of volume of sales over October last year and exerted the fifth biggest influence over the Retail Trade rate. This median figure was attributed to the increase of the prices of electric-electronic devices[1] as a consequence of the devaluation of the currency exchange rate. Nevertheless, this activity was stimulated by the Minha Casa Melhor program, launched in July 2013. This segment recorded a cumulative rise of 5.4% in the year and of 6.0% in the last 12 months.



[1] According to IPCA, the prices of Electric-electronic devices cumulatively changed 5.2% in the last 12 months.

 

The volume of sales of Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear rose 3.5% and was the sixth biggest contributor to the overall rate. The cumulative rate for the first ten months of the year was 3.2% and, for the last 12 months, 3.6%. This activity maintained the pace of growth, stimulated, among other factors, by the moderate increase of the prices of wearing apparel (cumulative change of 5.7% in the last 12 months against 5.8% of the overall index, according to IPCA).

The segment of Office, computer and communication material and equipment, responsible for the seventh highest contribution to the overall rate, increased the volume of sales in October by 10.5% against the same month last year and recorded a cumulative rate of 6.5% in the year and of 1.9% in the 12 last months.  This behavior was explained by the moderate increase in the prices of Microcomputers together with the deflation of Telephone devices[1].

By dropping 0.6%, the activity of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery exerted the smallest influence on the overall retail and posted a cumulative rate of 2.6% in the year and of 3.5% in the last 12 months.

Extended retail

The volume of sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces rose 6.2% over September. It registered a drop when compared with October last year: (-4.2%). This figure could be explained by the base effect, once this activity grew 24.1% in September 2012. In terms of cumulative indexes, the changes were of 1.3% in the year and of 2.1% in the last 12 months.

As to the sector of Construction material, the changes in the volume of sales were of 0.9% over the previous month and of 6.2% over October 2012. The cumulative rate in the year was 7.2% and, in the last 12 months, 7.0%. The tax incentives of the federal administration through the reduction of IPI remained stimulating the performance of this sector.

REGIONAL FIGURES

The volume of sales in relation to October 2012 dropped in only one Federation Unit: Roraima (-1.08%). The most significant positive rates were recorded in Alagoas (12.0%); Rio Grande do Norte (10.1%); Maranhão (10.1%); Paraíba (9.0%) and Paraná (9.0%). As to the participation in the retail trade rate, the highlights were São Paulo (6.1%); Rio de Janeiro (4.9%); Paraná (9.0%); Santa Catarina (4.8%) and Pernambuco (7.7%).

In the extended retail, only 15 Federation Units posted a rise in the volume of sales. The biggest changes were registered in Acre (10.4%); Alagoas (10.4%); Amazonas (9.8%); Paraíba (7.6%) and Rio Grande do Norte (7.2%). The biggest influences on the overall figure came from São Paulo (2.6%); Rio de Janeiro (5.1%); Rio Grande do Sul (5.2%); Paraná (5.0%) and Pernambuco (5.8%). The seasonally adjusted series for the volume of sales reported 18 states with a positive change. The highlights were Acre (7.0%); Paraíba (3.6%); Roraima (3.2%); Sergipe (2.7%) and Amazonas (1.7%). The biggest drops were recorded in Ceará (-1.0%); Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.9%) and Goiás (-0.8%).



[1] According to IPCA, the prices changes of Microcomputers and Telephone devices in the last 12 months were 5.7% and -8.7%, respectively.


Social Communication
December 12, 2013


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