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In June, IBGE expects harvest to be 14.7% bigger than in 2012

 

The sixth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds[i]
added up to 185.7 million metric tons, 14.7% up over that of 2012 (161.9 million metric tons) and 188,240 metric tons less than the estimate of May (-0.1%). The estimate of the area to be harvested in 2013 (52.6 million hectares) rose 7.8% against the harvested area in 2012 (48.8 million hectares), 330,166 ha less than the estimate last month (-0.6%). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 92.2% of the production estimate and accounted for 86.2% of the area to be harvested. The comparison with 2012 pointed to an increase in the harvested area of 7.2% for corn, 11.1% for soybeans and a decrease (-0.4%) in the harvested area for rice. Concerning production, the increases recorded were: 3.1% for rice, 9.7% for corn and 23.8% for soybeans, when compared with 2012 figures. The complete publication can be accessed at
www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.



Upland cottonseed, peanuts in the shell, paddy rice, bean seed, castor beans, corn grain, soybean grain, oat grain, rye grain, barley grain, sunflower grain, sorghum grain, wheat grain and triticale grain. Surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (CONAB), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.

 

 

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 75.9 million metric tons; South, 73.4 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.6 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.2 million metric tons and North, 4.6 million metric tons. The comparison with the last harvest registered increases of 7.2% in the Central-West Region, 33.0% in the South, 1.9% in the Southeast and 2.4% in the Northeast. On the other hand, the North Region decreased by 2.6%. In the 2013 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 23.8%, followed by Paraná (20.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.7%). These states together accounted for 59.9% of the national forecast.

June estimate in relation to May

Compared with May, the changes in the following production estimates were the highlights in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of June: cotton (-1.8%), peanuts - 1st crop (5.7%), peanuts - 2nd crop (18.4%) potatoes - 3rd crop (-19.0%), coffea arabica (-0.3%), coffea canephora (-16.5%), total beans (-2.4%), beans - 3rd crop (10.7%), cassava (-6.5%), corn - 1st crop (-1.1%), corn - 2nd crop (0.3%) and wheat (0.8%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - Re-estimates in the state of Goiás pointed to a big decrease in the cropped area (17.7%), mainly in the southwest of the state, where this culture prevails. The production was severely affected by droughts in the Northeast, resulting in smaller areas and in the occurrence of pests like the bicudo in Pernambuco. Mato Grosso, the biggest producer in Brazil, had just started the harvest, estimated in 1,771,086 metric tons, whereas Bahia was about to finish it, probably reaching 1,019,279 metric tons.

PEANUTS IN THE SHELL - In June, the national production of the two crops of peanuts was estimated in 365,851 metric tons, representing an increase of 6.3% over last month. As the biggest producer, São Paulo accounted for 87.6% of the overall production, showing an increase of 5.7% in the first crop and of 52.7% in the second one, both figures in relation to the previous estimate. At national level, the second crop increased 18.4% in relation to the production estimate in May.

POTATOES - The production estimate of potatoes in June was of 3,306,806 metric tons, pointing to a drop of 3.6% over May. The production of potatoes in Brazil is divided into three different crops: the first crop, called summer crop, the second crop, planted in the beginning of the civil year and the third one, planted by mid-year. In June, the biggest change in the production estimate was registered in the third crop, as it reduced 19.0% against May. The figures were most influenced by the state of São Paulo, the second biggest producer, accounting for 29.1% of the production of this harvest. São Paulo reported a drop of 49.8% in the area to be harvested and of 44.5% in the estimated production.

TOTAL COFFEE BEANS - Compared with May, the June figures registered a decrease of 4.6% in the expected production and of 4.0% in the average yield.

COFFEE BEANS (ARABICA) - The overall production of coffea arabica estimated in June recorded a fall of 0.3% over May. The average yield registered an increase of 0.6%. The total planted area decreased 0.9%. The area to be harvested also decreased 0.9%. The estimates tend to stabilize with the progress of the harvest.

COFFEE BEANS (CANEPHORA) - Espírito Santo reported a decrease of 21.0% in the expected production in June, due to the lack of rain and to the high temperatures. This state may record an even bigger drop in the yield in future surveys. The production in Espírito Santo was estimated in 493,832 metric tons (8.2 million 60 kg sacks) and the overall production, in 657,723 metric tons (10.9 million 60 kg sacks).

TOTAL BEAN SEED - Taking into account the three crops of the product, the estimate for the national production of bean was of 2,957,311 metric tons, 2.4% smaller than that reported in May. The Northeast was also the main responsible for such negative figure against May, registering a decrease of 63,695 metric tons in the expected production.

BEAN SEED 3rd crop - The expected production of 500,706 metric tons for the third crop of bean seed is 10.7% smaller than the estimate of May. An increase in the area to be planted was estimated in 0.8%, as well as an improvement of 9.8% in the average yield.

CASSAVA - The estimate of the production of cassava in June was of 21,449,146 metric tons, pointing to a drop of 6.5% over May. The estimated planted area was of 2,182,007 hectares and the expected average yield, 14,130 kg/ha, a decrease of 5.2% and 0.7%, respectively. The current estimate was influenced by the Northeast, which reported a fall of 20.6% in the production estimate in relation to May, a reduction of 1,297,236 metric tons. It reflected the decrease of 13.1% in the planted area, of 14.8% in the are to be harvested and of 6.8% in the expected average yield. The most significant losses in the production were recorded in Bahia (40.1%), Ceará (19.2%), Maranhão (8.4%), Rio Grande do Norte (42.7%), Pernambuco (14.6%) and Alagoas (7.4%).

TOTAL CORN GRAIN - In June, the estimate of the overall production of corn grain is of 78,211,321 metric tons, 0.3% less than that reported last month, but still expecting a record harvest. Both planted and harvested areas registered a drop of 1.6% over May. As to the expected production, 34.5 million metric tons (44.1%) were of corn - 1st crop and 43.7 million metric tons (55.9%) were of corn - 2nd crop. Due to the good prices practiced at planting time, the producers invested in corn - 2nd crop.

WHEAT GRAIN - The estimated production of wheat in June was of 5,557,329 metric tons, 0.8% bigger than that of May. Its planted area is expected to reach 2,068,767 hectares, a growth of 7.7% over 2012 and of 0.7% over May.

Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul accounted for 92.8% of the planted area and for 92.0% of the national production of wheat. In Paraná, 85.0% of the expected planted area in 2013 was consolidated: the crops are either in the germination or vegetative growth phase. In Rio Grande do Sul, the estimated production of wheat in June was of 2,427,620 metric tons, pointing to an increase of 30.1% in relation to 2012, highlighted by the increase of the yield, which should reach 24.3%.

June estimate in relation to the production of 2012

Among the 26 selected products, 16 increased the estimated production over 2012: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (11.9%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (3.6%), paddy rice (3.1%), oat grain (12.7%), potatoes - 1st crop (2.5%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.2%), sugarcane (10.3%), barley grain (17.0%), bean seed - 2nd crop (13.7%), bean seed - 3rd crop (3.3%), corn grain - 1st crop (3.8%), corn grain - 2nd crop (14.8%), soybean grain (23.8%), sorghum grain (21.9%), wheat grain (26.9%) and triticale grain (18.2%). Ten products registered negative changes: upland cottonseed (31.8%), potatoes - 3rd crop (30.8%), cacao nuts (5.0%), coffee beans (arabica) (4.9%), coffee beans (canephora) (13.2%), onions (9.2%), bean seed - 1st crop (2.7%), oranges (4.6%), castor beans (32.9%) and cassava (8.4%).

In absolute numbers, the most significant increases in the production compared with the 2012 harvest were: sugarcane, soybeans and corn. Also in absolute numbers, the biggest negative changes in the annual comparison were: oranges, cotton and cassava.

UPLAND COTTONSEED - An annual culture which registered a big negative change in absolute numbers, when compared with the production in 2012: a difference of 1,580,219 metric tons and a reduction of 431,114 hectares in the harvested area. Some of the factors that explained the retraction of this crop in 2013 were the stock replenishment by two record harvests (2011 and 2012), the European crisis and the rise in the price of soybeans, leading to a competition for planting areas.

Mato Grosso was the main producer, accounting for 52.3% of the national production of upland cottonseed. The reduction in the area in relation to the previous year was due to its low value at planting time. Most of the cropping was made in the recommended      period and the climate conditions have been fairly good this year.

TOTAL COFFEE BEANS - Now underway, the 2013 national harvest was estimated in 2,847,931 metric tons, or 47.5 million 60 kg sacks of processed coffee beans. The total planted area of 2,295,870 ha of coffee (arabica and canephora) in Brazil was 1.7% smaller than that in 2012. The area to be harvested was estimated in 2,046,732 ha, 2.2% smaller than that in 2012.

The two species together recorded a decrease of 7.0% in the production in relation to the 2012 harvest. The differences between the production of "high and low" years have been decreasing, as a result of the large share of arabica in the coffee areas in Brazil.

COFFEE BEANS (ARABICA) - The harvest is underway in the majority of producing areas. The decrease of 4.9% in the national production of coffea arabica estimated for 2013, in relation to the 2012 harvest, was mainly due to the physiologic characteristic of this species, which alternates between harvests of "high and low" productivity.

Brazil should produce 2,190,208 metric tons of coffea arabica in 2013, the equivalent to 36.5 million 60 kg sacks. The area to be harvested was estimated in 1,563,545 ha, 1.6% smaller than the harvested area in 2012. The total planted area with this culture in all development stages added up to 1,749,059 ha, 1.5% smaller than that in 2012. The respectively second and first national producers, São Paulo (-18.0%) and Minas Gerais (-5.8%), recorded a fall in the production in 2013.

COFFEE BEANS (CANEPHORA) - The 2013 estimate of 657,723 metric tons (11.0 million sacks) was 13.2% smaller than the production in 2012, in a harvested area of 483,187 ha, 4.2% smaller than that in 2012.  Espírito Santo is the biggest producer of canephora, accounting for an estimate of 75.1% of the production of this species in 2013. The state production, estimated in 493,832 metric tons (8.2 million sacks), decreased 16.1% in relation to 2012.

SUGARCANE - This culture expanded with the incentives to renewable fuels and flex cars, but decelerated with the worldwide credit crisis at the end of 2008 and the announcement of the petroleum potential in pre-salt areas. It returned to growth in 2013: 10.3% in the estimated production, more 69,143,863 metric tons in relation to 2012. In São Paulo, the main producer (55.6% of the national production), it is expected an increase in the area to be harvested (5.7%), in the production (15.0%) and in the average yield (8.8%). Conversely, a reduction of 7.1% is expected in the total area when compared with the 2012 harvest.

TOTAL BEAN SEED - In this sixth survey, it is expected an increase of 4.8% in the production and a decrease of 5.6% in the planted area in relation to 2012. The biggest producers were Paraná (23.9%), Minas Gerais (18.6%) and Goiás (9.8% of the overall production). The three states are expected to decrease the planted area in relation to 2012: Paraná (-2.7%), Minas Gerais (-2.1%) and Goiás (-16.1%).

ORANGES - The national harvest of oranges declined 4.6%, less 877,094 metric tons in relation to the last harvest. Large national and international stocks, worsen by the European crisis and customs blockades, were the main factors deterring citriculture in 2013.

São Paulo, the main producer, accounted for 74.1% of the national harvest of oranges. Despite the reassessment now made, this state registered a decrease of 3.8% in the estimated planted area, of 13.3% in the area to be harvested and of 6.6% in the production in relation to 2012. Only the average yield recorded an increase of 7.7% over 2012.

CASSAVA - The estimated production of cassava in 2013 is of 21,449,146 metric tons, pointing to a drop of 8.4% in relation to 2012, reflecting the reduction of 13.3% in the planted area and of 10.9% in the area to be harvested. The losses were bigger in the Northeast Region (16.4%), due to the continuous drought started in 2012.

CORN GRAIN - The record harvest of corn in 2013 was leveraged by the good prices practiced since the first crop of the product. The prices remained leveraging the second crop, coupled with good climate conditions in the main producing areas. The national production was 9.7% bigger than that in 2012, recording an absolute increase of 6,914,843 metric tons. The area to be harvested also increased in 1,020,320 (7.2%).

The first crop registered an increase of 1,271,380 metric tons (3.8%). Although the planted area was smaller in 770.631 hectares (10.1%), the average yield was of 5,310 kg/ha, 11.4% higher than last year. The absolute change expected for the second crop of the product was of 5.643.463 metric tons, an increase of 14.8% in a 1,347,077 hectares bigger planted area (18.2%). This was the second consecutive year in which the production volume of the second crop is bigger than the first one, once producers cropped soybeans as summer culture and then replaced it by corn in the second crop.

Mato Grosso became the biggest producer of corn in 2013, accounting for 23.5% of the overall production in Brazil, which corresponded to 18,414,375 metric tons, followed by Paraná with 23.1%, or 18,060,602 metric tons. These two states accounted for 46.6% of the national harvest of corn.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - Soybeans registered a record harvest in 2013, exceeding the 2012 production in 15,633,187 metric tons (23.8%). The planted area was 2,700,055 hectares bigger (10.8%), whereas the area to be harvested surpassed that of the last year in 2,775,432 hectares (11.1%). The average yield changed from 2,635 kg/ha in the previous harvest to 2,935 kg/ha, an increase of 11.4%. Compared with 2012, the good prices practiced and better climate conditions, particularly in the South Region, explained such figures.

Mato Grosso is the main producer of this oilseed, accounting for 28.8% of the national production. The culture was cropped in the recommended period, having suffered from lack of rainfall at the beginning of the cycle and excess of rainfall at the end. Problems were also experienced with the whitefly and other end-cycle diseases in the current harvest in Mato Grosso, thus affecting the quality of the grain.


Social Communication
July 09, 2013


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