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In November 2009, the Brazilian industrial production recorded a variation of -0.2% in comparison to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, after having increased during 10 consecutive months (from January to October), when it accumulated an increase of 19.4%.
In relation to November 2008, industry grew by 5.1%, interrupting a sequence of 12 months of negative results in this kind of comparison.
The rate of November led the indicator accumulated in 2009 to -9.3%, reducing the loss verified until October (-10.7%). The annualized rate (accumulated in the last 12 months) also presented a reduction in the rhythm of decrease, when it changed from -10.6% in October to -9.7% in November, interrupting the downward trend observed since October 2008.
With the variation of -0.2% between October and November, after an increase of 2.3% from September to October, the level of the Brazilian industrial production was 5.9% below the record established in September 2008.
Of the 27 surveyed branches, 15 recorded decrease in this comparison, with automotive vehicles (-2.2%) standing out, after having accumulated an expansion of 107.6% in the first 10 months of 2009. Negative influences also came from other equipment of transportation (-7.2%); editing and printing (-2.3%); electric machines, appliances and equipment (-2.9%); and electronic material and communication equipment (-2.8%). These segments showed losses after having accumulated, in the last months, respective gains of 6.8%, 5.0%, 9.9% and 20.7%.
Among the activities with increased production in relation to October, the highlights are machinery and equipment (3.9%); petroleum refining and alcohol production (3.5%); non-metallic minerals (3.5%); basic metallurgy (1.3%); and office machines and computer equipment (3.9%).
Still in this comparison, indexes by categories of use were more dynamic in capital goods (6.1%) and intermediate goods (2.1%), which accumulated, respectively, increases of 28.6% since April and 18.2% since January 2009. Durable consumer goods (-4.8%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) had decreases after increases of 6.3% and 1.3% in October.
The virtual stability in the passage from October to November, after a continuous increase in the first 10 months of 2009, kept the quarterly moving average upward trend, with the quarter closed in November surpassing by 1.2% the level of October. This increase was supported in the segments capital goods (5.4%), which had the highest increase since November 2003 (7.9%), and intermediate goods (1.7%). Semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) and durable consumer goods (0.1%) practically repeated the indexes of October.
Considering the previous year, production has the first increase in 12 months
The 5.1% result in the comparison November 2009/November 2008 – the first positive in 12 months – reflected the growth of most (20) of the 27 surveyed sectors, with automotive vehicles (22.9%) exerting the greatest impact, followed by other chemical products (7.9%), rubber and plastic (14.2%), machinery and equipment (4.8%) and beverages (9.0%). Among the seven activities that showed falls in this contrast, the most relevant were other equipment of transportation (-14.6%) and electric machines, appliances and material (-8.5%).
Three of the four categories of use recorded growth in relation to 2008, confirming the generalized profile of recovery in the industrial sector. The main highlight were durable consumer goods (26.3%), positively influenced by the increasing production of automobiles (58.8%) and household appliances (17.9%), especially those of the “white line”1 (24.3%). It is worth emphasizing the influence of the low base of comparison due to stock readjustments occurred at the end of 2008. Among durable goods, the main negative pressure continued coming from cell phones (-12.2%).
The sectors intermediate goods (5.2%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (1.8%) inverted the falls of -2.5% and -0.6%, respectively, observed in October. In the first segment, the increase was supported principally by the items associated to petroleum refining and alcohol production (11.1%), other chemical products (8.4%) and rubber and plastic (13.9%), whereas food products exerted the only negative pressure (-3.5%). It is also worth highlighting the positive performances of inputs for civil construction (4.7%), the first expansion since November 2008, and for the packaging sector (5.3%). In semi- and non-durable consumer goods, except fuels (-9.6%), all subsectors exerted positive influences.
The production of capital goods (-2.5%) was the only to record a negative rate, although with expressive reduction in the rhythm of decrease (-16.8% in October). There was a generalized improvement in the subsectors, with highlights being capital goods for mixed use (from -11.1% in October to 14.5% in November), capital goods for transportation (from -13.4% to -7.1%) and for industrial purposes (from -32.1% to -8.4%).
In the accumulated in 2009, 23 of the 27 industrial activities presented decreased production
In the indicator accumulated from January to November 2009, considering the same period of 2008 (-9.3%), 23 of the 27 industrial activities showed reduced production. The decreased production of automotive vehicles (-17.1%) continued exerting the main negative impact, followed by machinery and equipment (-22.0%), basic metallurgy (-20.3%) and electronic material and communication equipment (-28.3%). Among the activities that grew, the highlights were pharmaceutical industry (7.2%) and beverages (6.9%).
All categories of use kept decreasing, most markedly capital goods (-20.2%), followed by intermediate goods (-10.9%), durable consumer goods (-9.8%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-2.2%).
1Refrigerators and freezers, stoves, washing machines and clothes dryers.
January 06, 2010