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The third forecast of the IBGE for the harvest of grains 2008 shows a planted area of 49.0 million hectares, 2.7% greater than the one of 2007 (47.7 million hectares). The production of grains expected for 2008 (135.7 million metric tons) is 2.1% higher than in the previous year. The harvest 2007 (133.0 million metric tons) was 13.7% major than the one obtained in 2006 (117.0 million metric tons).
The third estimate of the planted area for 2008, considering the 12 surveyed products, including now coffee, is 49.0 million hectares, 2.7% higher than the one of 2007 (47.7 million hectares). In the estimate of 2008, seven products have positive change compared to the harvested area in 2007: herbaceous cotton in seed (3.7%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (3.3%), rice in husk (1.1%), sugar cane (8.6%), cassava (2.1%), corn in grain 1st harvest (4.5%) and soybeans in grain (1.4%). On the other hand, the products with decreasing output are: potatoes 1st harvest (-6.9%), coffee in grain (-3.5%), onions (-6.6), beans in grain 1st harvest (-1.2%) and tobacco in leaves (-3.1%).
Regarding the expected productions, the following products have positive changes: herbaceous cotton in seed (6.4%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (4.2%), rice in husk (7.8%), coffee in grain (16.3%), sugar cane (8.3%), cassava (3.4%), corn in grain 1st harvest (4.7%) and soybeans in grain almost without a significant variation. The products with negative change are potatoes 1st harvest (6.6%), onions (10.3%), beans in grain 1st harvest (2.0%) and tobacco in leaves (6.1%).
In a general way, the difference observed in the third forecast for the harvest 2008 compared to the previous one results from the new field evaluation in Rio Grande do Sul, which shows decreases in the productivity of soybeans and corn, due to the possibility of climate events such as the phenomenon La Niña.
In 2008, production of coffee in grain may reach 2.5 million metric tons
The first forecast for the area of coffee in grain to be harvested in 2008 shows a production of 2,511,489 metric tons, the equivalent to 41.8 million bags of 60 kg of the product in processed grains. The prospect of an increase of 16.3% compared to the harvest in 2007 is a consequence of the biennial cycle of the predominant species (arabica) with alternation of high and low productivities, typical of the product.
Despite the rainfall of July, the unfavorable climatic conditions in almost all the year of 2007 may limit the next harvest. The lack of rains in the second semester caused bad results. The possible occurrence of Indian summers, common in the first months of the year, is still another factor of risk for the crop.
The expected average national yield in 2008 is 1,142 kg/ha (19 sc/ha). The total planted area by crop is estimated in 2.405.517 ha, while the area to be harvested is estimated in 2.198.758 ha. In this first evaluation were considered, by decreasing order of participation in the total national production, the states of Minas Gerais (51.1%), Espírito Santo (23.9%), Bahia (6.6%), São Paulo (6.3%), Paraná (5.6%) and Rondônia (3.9%).
The states included in the survey in the group “others” (Acre, Pará, Ceará, Pernambuco, Mato Grosso, Goiás and Federal District) answered, together, for 1.9% of the expected national production, while Rio de Janeiro represented 0.6% and Mato Grosso do Sul only 0.1%.
The estimate for sugar cane in the third forecast summed 558.0 million metric tons, 8.3% above the production obtained in 2007 (515.3 million metric tons). The harvested area also registered increase of 6.4% compared to the previous year, when 6.7 million hectares were reaped. The productivity estimated in 2008 (76,608 kg/ha) is close to the one of 2007 (76,845 kg/ha). The increase of the sugar cane crop shows the interest, mainly in ethanol and in alcohol.
In 2008 the expected production of herbaceous cotton in seed is approximately 4.0 million metric tons, 6.4% above the one obtained in 2007 (3.8 million metric tons). This growth occurred due to the increase of the area and productivity in Bahia (13.5% in area and 5.0% in expected productivity) and in Mato Grosso, major producer with 52% of the national production (3.9% in area and 1.5% in expected productivity). The increase occurred due to the maintenance of prices in the domestic and foreign market. In Mato Grosso the majority of producers, in groups, place the production directly in the foreign market through future contracts, obtaining better results.
Rice (in husk)
The third evaluation of rice in husk for 2008 shows a production of 12.0 million metric tons, 7.8% major than the one harvested in 2007. The positive result occurred due to an expansion of 12.1% in the expected production and 12.3% in the planted area in Rio Grande do Sul, main state producer. Mato Grosso, main producer in the Central West, registered a decrease of 14.7% in the planted area, due to the fact that producers gave preference to the planting of soybeans, easier to sell, besides the decrease of the planting of rice in husk in new areas of the state.
Beans (in grain) 1st harvest
The third forecast for 2008 of beans in grain 1st harvest shows an estimated production of 1.7 million metric tons, 2.0% lower than the one obtained in 2007, when a volume of 1,792,942 metric tons was harvested. The delay of rains turned unfeasible the planting of several areas in the recommended period, especially in the South Region of the country.
Corn (in grain) 1st harvest
For the corn in grain 1st harvest, a production of 38.0 million metric tons is expected, 4.7% major than the one observed in 2007, encouraged by the increase of the planted area of the main producing states. Another factor which contributed for the favorable scenario was the good quotation of the product due to the lower world supply from the United States, which is using part of its harvest as raw material for the production of ethanol.
Soybeans (in grain)
The production of soybeans expected for 2008 is 58.2 million metric tons, same level attained in 2007. The planted area showed an increase of 1.4% (20.9 million hectares) while the average yield shows decreases using the same indicator (2.779 kg/ha).
Harvest of grains in 2007 confirms historical record of production
The estimate for the closing value (December) of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, for 2007, confirms the record production of 133.0 million metric tons, surpassing the previous record, obtained in 2003 (123.6 million). The result is 13.7% above the one obtained in 2006 (117.0 million metric tons) and only 0.1% lower than the estimate of November (133.2 million metric tons). The three main products of the harvest (rice, corn 1st and 2nd harvests and soybeans) sum approximately 91% of the national production of grains. In relation to the planted area of 2007, there was a slow decrease (0.4%), 45.4 million hectares. Soybeans and corn had the major planted areas, with 20.6 million and 9.2 million hectares, respectively.
Among the Major Regions, the production of grains was distributed in the following way: South (59.9 million metric tons); Central West (44.0 million metric tons); Southeast (15.9 million metric tons); Northeast (9.8 million metric tons); and North (3.3 million metric tons).
In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of December, when all the crops are already reaped, a small change in the estimate of production of wheat was observed (+0.8%) compared to the information of November. The increase was a consequence of adjustments in the productivity index of Paraná, which increased from 2,254 kg/ha to 2,304 kg/ha. In a planted area of 831 thousand hectares, a production of 1.9 million metric tons is expected. This value is 55% higher than the one obtained in 2006, when the harvest of wheat was considerably influenced by irregular climatic conditions. The harvest is concluded.
Fifteen crops had positive change in the estimate of December compared to 2006
Among the twenty-five analyzed products, fifteen had positive change in the estimate of production in relation to the previous year: herbaceous cotton in seed (33.7%), peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (16.0%), potatoes 1st harvest (22.7%), potatoes 2nd harvest (5.3%), cacao (nuts) (8.8%), sugar cane (13.2%), onions (11.1%), barley in grain (16.6%), beans in grain 1st harvest (13.0%), orange (1.2%), cassava (0.3%), corn in grain 1st harvest (15.6%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (35.7%), soybeans in grain (11.1%), wheat in grain (62.3%). With negative change: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (10.2%), rice in husk (3.7%), oats in grain (39.9%), potatoes 3rd harvest (12.8%), coffee in grain (16.7%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (23.0%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (5.5%), castor beans (berry) (5.7%), sorghum in grain (12.4%) and triticale in grain (7.0%).
January 08, 2008